"American Muslims And The Odds Against Finding A Terrorist Next Door"

"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"

The following is a quote from p. 52 of that particular publication.

He says quote - “Many people confuse the statement “almost all terrorists are Muslims” with “almost all Muslims are terrorists.”  Assume that the first statement is true, that 99% of terrorists are Muslims.  This would mean that only about .0001 percent of Muslims are terrorists, since there are more than one billion Muslims and only, say, ten thousand terrorists, one in a hundred thousand.  The logical mistake makes you (unconsciously) overestimate the odds of a randomly drawn Muslim person (between the age of fifteen to fifty) being a terrorist by close to fifty thousand times”.