Northwestern +14.5 1.1% Free Play

We are getting great line value here with Northwestern. Not only are they off an Akron upset as 21 point favorites which is inflating the opening line of 10, but the line has moved nearly 5 points. Northwestern is well coached and off a bye here and I expect their best effort of the season. Northwestern is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 as a dog, and this is a lot of points in a game that Michigan is going to try to shorten.

Northwestern can stop the run allowing 3 yards per carry at home, and 3.19 last year and off a bye they have played extremely well under Fitzgerald. Michigan has played nobody since Notre Dame facing an average yards per play offense ranking 79th compare that with Northwestern’s defense that has faced #58. Their offense has faced an average opponent ranking of 74th in yards per play compare that with Northwestern’s rank of #53 and there is a huge gap in strength of schedule.

Northwestern is going to test the secondary of Michigan. Something only SMU has really attempted and had success throwing for 3 TD’s and only 1 INT. Northwestern has a talented QB who has NFL talent and they’re off a bye. I am aware Northwestern’s RB Larkin had to retire and there are a lot of question marks for their backfield, but that only makes it more difficult for Michigan to prepare. I think we are buying low on Northwestern. This line would have been 6 or 7.5 a few weeks ago.

Friday Morning Commute Podcast - Free Pick Big Ten - Smart $ & Trends

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